GST may burn hole in middle class’ pocket
ISHAN BAKSHI
New Delhi, 8 August
Much of the discussion on the potential impact of the goods and services tax (GST) on inflation has tendedto focus on the rise in headline ConsumerPrice Index (CPI). But, as the increase in tax rates will vary across product categories, the actual impact on the end-consumer will depend on the composition of his consumption basket.
Assuming the revenue neutral rate (RNR) works to be around 17-18 per cent, a standard rate of 22 per cent, with alower rate of 12 per cent for some items and a higher rate of 35 per cent for others, the sharpest tax increases are expected in categories such as health, clothing and footwear, medicines and electricity, according to the report on RNA, prepared by the Chief Economic Advisor (CEA).
Taxes on health, excluding medicines, could rise from 8.8 per cent currently, to around 13.6 per cent – an increase of 4.8 per cent. Those on clothing and footwear would rise to 13.8 per cent, up from 9.5 per cent currently, while those on medicines and electricity would rise by L2 and Ll per cent, respectively. Other items in the CPI basket are likely to witness lower tax hikes, with the exception of oil and fat, which would actually see a decline of 0.6 per cent. But, this is just an indicative rise. The actual rise may well be of a higher magnitude depending on the final tax rates that the GST committee finally decides.
But, the impact of this increase in taxes on household expenditure depends on how much they are currently spending on these categories. Data presented in the CEAs report show that, on average, the bottom 40 per cent of the population, who constitute the poor, spend roughly 7.1 per cent of their consumption expenditure on clothing. By comparison, the rest of the population spends SA per cent. This implies that any increase in taxes on clothing is likely to hit the poor to a relatively large extent.
Data also show that while the poor spend only one per cent of their total expenditure on health, including medicines, this rises up to 5.5 per cent of total household expenditure. By comparison, the rest of the population spends roughly 75 per cent on health and medicines. Thus, both segments are likely to be equally hit by any rise in taxes on health services, including medicines.
On the flip side, cereals, fuel and light, which account for a fourth of the expenditure of the poor, are only likely to see a marginal increase in taxes. “Ultimately, thehigher govem-ment revenue would be a cost borne by some sections of consumers. This may have an impact on households’ inflationary expectations, even if inflation indices do not register arise, based on their static composition,” Icra noted. Currently, 49 per cent of items in the CPI are taxed at zero rates. Another 32 per cent attract low tax rates, ranging between 0-124 percent.
THE GST SQUEEZE (in %)
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•with a low rate of 12%, a standard rate of 22%, and a high rate of 35%
Fifteen per cent are taxed at normal rates, ranging between 124 to 29.4 per cent, while another four per cent are taxed at higher rates.
The poor are likely to suffer on account of taxes on education too. “Education taxes also tum out to be regressive, as consumption of books and school supplies is a higher part of education spend for the bottom 40 per cent, and tuition (mostly tax-exempt) is a higher spend for the top 60 per cent,” noted the CEAs report.
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